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My post election analysis

Well after two years of campaigning we finally have the next President of the United States, Barack Obama. Up to the final days, the McCain camp, fellow Republicans and certain pundits said that it was going to be a close election and if everything falls the right way, McCain has a chance to win. In hindsight, this election was decided months ago, nothing fell McCain's way and McCain will go down in history as another Bob Dole, with no chance to win against a charismatic Democratic opponent.

Now if you read by earlier blogs, long before the primaries had produced Obama and McCain as the winners of their respective parties nomination, I had guaranteed a Republican win. I guess I am no Nostradamus but there were factors no one could have expected and others I analyzed wrong.

1)No one saw the economic meltdown of the housing,financial and overall stock market. Its true that people vote their pocketbook and with less money in their 401k's McCain never had a chance. Voters will blame the party in power.

2)Along the same lines, I under estimated the unpopularity of President Bush. The economic melt down and the war (which was never an issue because of the economy) had Bush's popularity rating hovering around 20%. McCain never distanced himself from him and Obama attacked him relentlessly for it. If McCain was smart he would have attacked the President and his non-conservative policies (domestic spending) and attacked Republicans as a whole. He had no problem doing this in 2000. If he really wanted to distanced himself from the administration, he would have votedagainst the bailout package. This would have differentiated himself from Obama and give the electorate a real choice on the economy. Overall, there were many mistakes his campaign had. Too many to list here.

3)McCain never connected with the base of the party and conservatives. Most polls said that a lot of voters were voting for McCain as “the lessor of two evils” and anti-Obama. They didn't believe in the person. Early on in the primary he said the right things and attended the right conferences but many conservatives like myself (McCain was the lessor of two evils in my eyes) saw right through it. I still believe that Palin was a good choice and did energize the base, but voters, in general vote for the top of the ticket.
4)What happened to McCain the fighter? For someone who's campaign was broke and on the brink of dropping out, and fought back to win the nomination, he lost the fire in the general election. For some reason the attack dog side of McCain was absent. He wanted to take “the high road” and reach across party lines, see what that got him, nothing!!!! You don't see the Democrats do this, they play for keeps and take no prisoners.
 
5)I greatly underestimated the turnout of minorities and younger voters. In most elections there have always been high expectations of these two voting blocks to come out to vote mostly for Democrats, just to never show up on election day. This time around, they came out in droves for Obama. I can see the minorities having a viable candidate this time but the youth? Does it come as a surprise, well yes and no. Yes because it does buck the trend and no, by seeing all the young voters in Obama rallies looking on in awe, crying and believing that they are seeing something out of this world. He memorized the audience in a hypnotic way. I have to admit it, Obama has a way with connecting with his supporters that makes Bill Clinton look bad. I haven't seen anything like it. Its almost scary. I love my politics but if my guy Romney would have won it all, you would see me ecstatic but not balling my eyes out.

Overall, this was an election that was a reflection on the economy and the popularity of the man in charge. I don't think that this is a shift towards the left as a nation, its all part of the cycle that both parties go though. I do see Republicans picking up seats two years from now making strides to regain power but it all depends on how successful Obama becomes.

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A No-Lose Situation

Well, we are less than a week away from the most important election in our lifetime.  While I have guaranteed a Republican victory over a year ago with several reasons backing up my claim a few things have changed since then.  The biggest being the steep economic downturn, which hurts the party in the White House.  So, I am a little worried about the outcome.  As it stands now, it does look like an Obama victory but I think its going to be closer than all the polls and the liberal pundits make it out to be.  There is no way Obama will get 50% of the vote, the electorate is not made up that way.  I believe that many Democrats will stay home because they feel like an Obama victory is a slam dunk and Barack doesn't need their vote.  I also believe that there will be a ground swell of paniced Republicans out there, that will get out and vote to prevent the Democrats having control of the White House and congress.  There are alot of independants and affliated party members have the same concern of one party in control, so they vote for a split.  They have to vote for a Republican this time because there is no way that the Democrats will lose either chamber of congress.  I can't be faithful with myself if I don't bring up the "Bradley Effect"  I know that the pundits on either side likes to bring up this subject, but I am a realist and there will be a slight effect that will swing a few close elections especially in swing states McCain's way.    These senarios along with my cynisim of the polls makes me belive that this will be an election that will go long into the night.
 
On November it will come down to what states can a candidate steal from the 2004 election.  Can Ohio, Florida and Virginia stay red and can Pennslyvania swing in McCain's favor.  It will be a very interesting night and I will be up with my popcorn all night.  No matter what the outcome is I believe I am in a no lose situation.  If McCain wins, I get the candidate I want (albeit not the perfect candidate, I wanted Romney) and if Obama wins I can sit back and say "I told you so" when all of his liberal policies start making their way through the Pelosi and Reid controlled congress.  All I will say to people who compain is "Don't blame it on me I voted McCain/Palin)
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The "Under the Radar" Battle

The only battle inside the battle between Obama vs McCain that the pundits like to talk about is black vs white issue, how there might be a "Bradley Effect" November 4th casusing McCain to win, but there is another battle brewing, waiting to explode.  Its the battle of incomes in America.  The question from "Joe the Plummer" and Obama's subsequent answer hits the nail of the head and McCain only now is hitting the point home and I hope its not too late.  Its Socialism peole, Obama wants to spread the weatlth from hard working America's to ones looking for a handout.  Sarah Palin is right, the middle class is mad, John McCain is mad and we are not going to take it anymore.  Nobody said the American dream comes easy, but its still alive, no matter what we hear every four years from the candidates from both sides.  All it takes is a little hard work and sacrifce.
If we elect Barack Obama and his far left views, along with the Democraticaly controled congress, the dream might have to be put on life support.  Innovations and job growth depends on having incentivies for people to risk their money and time so one day it will pay them dividends to become rich.  If all we are going to do is "spread the wealth" why should someone take risk and sacrifices to invent something to improve our lives or grow a business, if they know that their fruits of their labor will go for more handouts and entitlement plans to those who don't deserve it.  I am not saying that everyone who is down on their luck are bums, but I believe that there are better ways to weed out these people.  We should INVEST in job training programs, lower corporate taxes (third highest in the world) and regulations to give business the incentive to keep jobs from going overseas.  We shouldn't blame corporations for going overseas, they are just running their business to achieve maximum return for their shareholders, which most Americans are.  Democrats need to realize without business and the jobs they create we would be like China with mostly government supported work and a very low standard of living.   I think that most Democrats have never taken a basic economic class if they would have they would create a business environment that is friendly to business not as the ones who drive them overseas. 
 
Obama's so called tax cuts which McCain has also hit a home run with, saying that if the bottom 40% of Americans dont' pay any taxes. This tax cut is acutally a tax credit, where people who has paid NO taxes will be getting a rebate in the mail.  This is a slap to all middle income families across America, where is our relief???
 
Come November 4th I hope when voters enter the booth they hear the words spoken by Obama "spread the wealth" and realize where their hard earn money is going and vote McCain. 
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The Race is On

Well the stage is set and at the end of the debate its all up to the voters to decide who will be the next president of the United States of America.  Although the two candiates will be traveling around toss up states to shore up their respective bases, unless something major news about the economy or national security or a major blunder by one of the canidates, a huge majority of the voting public has already made up their mind on which candidate they will be voting for November 4th.  Even the so called "undecided" voters in the back of their mind know who their candidate is and it would take a major even to sway their mind. 
 
In the third debate tonight, John McCain needed to hit a home run.  While he did speak the line of all three debates telling if Obama if he wanted to run against George W. Bush he should have done it four years ago, I don't feel that he got the job done.  He had more fire in his belly but couldn't overcome his natural nice personality to really go after Barack Obama on his policies, decisions he has made in the past and his association with questionable characters.  Just as you feel that he had Obama against the ropes on policy, as former Arizona Cardinal Coach Dennis Green puts it "He let them off the hook" but this has been the hallmark of McCain's campaign so far.  His handlers wants him to go more negative, McCain wants to take the high road and what we get is an inconsistant message.  A confused voting public isn't what John McCain needs in November especially in the economic environment we are living in and trying to succeed an unpopular president from his own party. 
 
Another mistake McCain is constently making is while he admits that economic subjects aren't his speciality, he hasn't hit the books, consulted with the right advisors and grasp the subject to really present a solid and well planned economic agenda.  He is still stumbles when he is talking about it and his plan is still not focused to make sense to the majority of the public who still doesn't understand what is going on around them. 
 
So its three weeks to the election and the hard work is done now its all about shaking the most hands for the two candidates.  The polls over the last week or two has Obama growing his lead especially in the swing states, making it look on paper the Obama is getting toward the 274 electorial votes he needs to win the White House. Over a year ago I had guaranteed a Republican win and stated numerous reason why.  Only last week, was the first time since that I have doubt of that happening.  With the ever sinking economy and mistakes from the McCain campaign is making this less likely.  Pesonally, I don't believe any of the polls for several reasons, but the bias can only be so big and looking at the electorial map (not the national polls we are constantly seeing)it will take  almost everything to swing in McCain's favor to make my prophetcy come true.  This election is going to come down to:
If McCain can just hold on to all the major states George W. Bush won- he wins automatically.
If McCain can win Pennsylavania and hold on to Ohio and Flordia, McCain can afford to lose some of the smaller toss up states
But if McCain loses Ohio or Florida, the election is done and we will have President Obama next January.
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The Matchup is Set :McCain/Palin vs Obama/Biden

It was 10:00 am and I get a call from my wife at work saying that McCain has picked his running mate, it was a women who she has never heard of (she isn't as policially savvy as myself, but don't hold that against her), I wasn't happy about it.  My horse in the race was Mitt Romney.  Although I have heard there were a couple of females in the running for VP, I have heard names like Kay Bailey Hutchinson, Meg Whitman and Carly Fiona.  Decent choices but not the type of candidate I want being a heartbeat away from the leader of the free world.  I called a few other politically oriented co-workers to vent figuring out why would McCain do this to us.  Well, I wasn't happy until I got home and listen the speech Sarah Palin gave in Dayton Ohio, accepting McCain's invitation to be his running mate.  WOW, this is the spark that McCain needed to energize the conservative base.  Up to now, McCain's campaign albeit a decent one, didn't wow people to get out of their chairs to write checks and vote come November.  Palin is the type of conservative McCain needed, she was pro-life, pro second admendment, will fight pork barrel spending and is a fighter with a great story to tell.  I believe based on her speach and what I have been reading and hearing in the hours since she will hold her own in the election, espcecially in her debate with Joe Biden. 
Even though there is a slight and I do mean slight ethics investigation on her, she has battled her own party and big oil successfully.  She is my kind of conservative, part of me wishes McCain was more like her.  She has executive experience unlike Obama (although a statement from the Obama camp she lacks experice)???? I don't get that, and has experience with energy and oil.  She wants us to tap the reserves of Anwar and places across HER state containing billions of barrels of oil and natural gas.  McCain was smart making this announcement the day after Obama's speech, no one is talking about him (more on the speech later) and are talking about Sarah Palin.  WOW McCain hit a rare home run against the slick campaingn of Barack Obama.    I also bet that Hillary is steamed that her destiny could be ruined by a conservative woman!!!! WOW there are many layers to this pick, too many to talk about in one blog all I have to say is John McCain, keep it up and this election will be in the bag.
 
 
As for the acceptance speech of Barack Obama, for a guy who has preached change  from day 1, his speech is the same one that we hear from Democrats every 4 years.  It talks about how bad shape America is in and that we need to fix social security, health care, race relations, the economy, education etc and they are the ones to do it with the same old solution, throw more money at it instead of rebuiling the foundation.  Any Democrat could have written this speech.  While America isn't perfect, we still live in the greatest nation on earth, no matter what the American hating Democrats have to say about it. 
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My Veep Predictions:

I know that's its not hard to predict the VP candidates with only a handful of choice to choose from, but here is my opinion on who each candidate should pick and who they will pick:
 
Barack Obama:
He should pick Hillary Clinton:according to polls quite a few Hillary supporters are either not going to vote for Obama or hasn't even decidied yet over 40% wow.  but I believe that this bridge has been burned a long time ago and Obama is too stubborn to let bygones be bygones and choose her, which would give him the best chance to win.
 
He will pick Joe Biden, a  white guy to balance the ticket who has a lot of experience including national security.  Biden is from Deleware which doesn't help him in southern states like a Tim Kaine would.
 
John McCain
He should pick Mitt Romeny, just for the fact that he would most likely turn Michigan and Massachuetts red and guarantee a McCain victory even if he does lose Ohio.  Romney will also give him a person that understands the economy to balance McCain's national security strengths. 
 
He will pick Tim Pawlenty, not much is known about him and its not a guarantee that he will bring in Minnesota, his home state.  Remember Minnesota voted Mondale in the rout of 1984. 
 
As I see it unless Obama suprises us all with the nomination of Clinton as VP there will be no shockers and game breakers this time around.  Both will be safe picks (Biden will be a borderline one with all of this gaffes) and in McCain's case a pro life candidate, dictated by the RNC.
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Cowardly Democrats

As if I need anything else to complain about what goes on in Washington, especially when it comes to the establishment and the Democratic party. As you all know, I am not a man who minces his words but this time around I need to be especially blunt and honest analyzing these antics. In the last 48 hours there have been two acts of cowardliness by Democratic leaders. The first happened Friday when speaker of the house Nancy Pelosi shut down the House of Representatives, shutting off microphones, CSPAN cameras and turning off the lights. This was a preemptive strike of not wanting to hold a vote on a energy bill that would allow new drilling to curb our dependence of foreign oil. She is under a lot of pressure from Republicans and even a few members of her own party to bring this bill to a vote on the floor. She knows that if it was presented, it would pass because there would be enough sane Democrats out there that would vote with Republicans . New drilling is supported by a two to one margin by Americans, according to numerous polls. Nancy Pelosi couldn't have this happen. In her eyes, its a no win situation for the Democratic party. A no vote on the record would jeopardize the electability of Democratic congressmen based on the hottest election topic in 2008 A yes vote would enable the bill to pass and be signed by President Bush, giving Bush and the Republicans a much needed victory in the eyes of Americans. A yes vote would also clash with their supporters; Big Environment. Democratic candidates wouldn't ever go against this core Democratic group (they bow to the green shrine everyday, just ask Al Gore). Hey, Big Environment has deep pockets and a loud voice and would make sure than any Democrat that votes against their wishes, pay in November. This would make congress a little more equally divided in a election year that all pundits expected a increase by the Democratic party. So instead of doing the work of the American people that they are supposed to represent, they pull a cowardly prank like this. Why don't you Nancy, grow a pair and actually do something important that would cross party lines. This is just another reason why congress has even a smaller approval rating than President Bush.


The second cowardly act by a leading Democrat isn't as bad as what Nancy Pelosi did, but it shows what kind of candidate and man Barack Obama is and what kind of president he will be. Just today I heard a news story that Barack Obama will only participate in the three scheduled presidential debates with John McCain instead of participating in several town hall meetings alongside McCain across the country. This would have been the modern day version of the Lincoln-Douglas debates. I like town hall meetings better than the standard debates because the questions come unscripted from Americans instead of the same old questions that pundits ask. (There might be one town hall style debate in the three scheduled, but I wouldn't necessarily depend on the questions being unscripted or scanned prior to the event. ) I find it cowardly that a man who speaks about change, not being a Washington insider and like to change the way Washington works, would back out out of these town hall meetings, an idea he initially interested in doing with McCain. What is he afraid of? It has become more evident week by week, we see incidents where Obama has a problem speaking off the cuff. He is just fine if he has a teleprompter in front of him, but when it comes to improvising, he needs a lot of practice. In a town hall format, he wouldn't be able just to give the same old answer, most of the time has nothing to do with the question asked, like he would be able to do with a panel of political pundits. He's afraid that this would make him look bad and give McCain an advantage. Its all about playing defense with politics not offensive, it not winning a campaign but not losing one. While most of McCain campaign stops have been town hall meetings as of late, we still see few mistakes from McCain and in my opinion still looks a little bit too stiff talking in this environment. This isn't the first time Obama has done things that went against what he has said in the past. Public financing comes to mind. Early in his campaign he said he would accept public financing of his campaign like John McCain but that was before he got his hands on a windfall of fund raising that has crushed every Democratic records and easily beats McCain's effort. Instead of limiting his spending which would be a Washington outsider thing to do, he has bypassed public financing which gives him a limitless amount of money to spend. He is the first presidential candidate to do this. What ever happened to McCain-Feingold, that was embraced by the left to keep money out of politics. Hmmmm. Barack.


I just can't believe what Democrats can get away with and I know that the media won't hold their feet to the fire, so its up to talk radio, Fox news and the blogosphere to spread this news to the masses. I hope that America wakes up to the fact that the Democratic party doesn't speak for the common man trying to fill his pickup truck with $4.00 a gallon gas but to special interests that they rail against every election cycle. Its the same old Washington politics and I am getting sick of it.

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McCain don't make me Libertarian, but I will if pushed

Last week on the Glen Beck show on CNN, he had Libertarian candidate for President Bob Barr, a former congressman and radio host (and probably most famous for being humiliated from Sasha Baron Cohen in the Borat movie)on for the whole hour (with too many commercials Glen), talking in detail, not politcal rhetortic about his stands on every issue from the War, to the econonomy to the energy crisis we are facing as a country.  He didn't shy away from any of the questions presented to him from Beck, I thought it was a nice conversation between to conservatives who have some differences betweeen them.  I pretty much agree with Bob Barr on every issue except for the war.  On that topic, we would bail out of Iraq but in a controlled fashion, while I would have a presence there just like what we have in Germany, South Korea and others to keep a presence in the Middle East for the forceeable future.  He is for drilling for oil offshore and in Alaska,  builiding of Nucular and Coal power plants, thinks global warming is false, would cut spending in all areas of the govenment and would eliminate the IRS.  Even though I am a card carrying memember of the Republican party, I do have several libertarian views like the limited view of government and a couple of their more wacked out views (not shared by Barr) of legalization of drugs and prostitution.  Not because I endulge in these activities but to take the crime away from these areas so we can concentrate our police force against more serious crimes.
 
Through out the primaries I thought that Mitt Romney was the closest thing we had to someone to keep government in check and keep the free markets flowing, but John McCain won the nomination.  Even though he says that he is for conservative causes, he still hasn't ran with the philosophy at full speed, his views on immigration, global warming and others have a lot to be desired.  If it weren't for the war and being a hawk on keeping government spending under control I wouldn't have much in common with the man.  Yes I have to admit I have more in common with McCain than Obama and in the past I have voted for the lessor of two evils which I most of us have done but all it does is waters down our core, that we would rather have a 50% conservative than a 0% one.  I also know that Bob Barr, while I respect him greatly for what he is doing, someone who sticks by their views noing that he has no chance to win, a vote for him is a vote for Obama.  McCain and Obama and countless others, have sold out their personal views to the other side to get elected. It's conservatives that move to he left and liberals that move to the right.  Third party candidates like Barr and even Ralph Nader, what you see is what you get, and I respect that.  So America, tell me what should a Republican do in this time of need?
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The fight of the Century

Hey, I have to give Hillary credit, her winning Texas and Ohio, albeit not cutting much into Obama’s delegate lead, tells us this is going to Denver in one of the closest primaries in history. I knew she were going to win Ohio, but not by ten points. Texas was a little surprise, knowing that the polls were trending in Obama’s favor, to a point where he has a slight lead but well within the margin of error in several polls. So now what. If you thought this race is interesting now with Hillary and Barack neck and neck, just hold on to your seats its going to get really interesting quick. Wyoming and Mississippi are next but the only big prize left on the board is Pennsylvania (and a handful of states including North Carolina are coming up after)but their primary is in SIX weeks, so their will be a lot of attention paid to the Keystone state. No one will come out of this primary season the decisive winner because of the Democrats are handing out their delegates proportionately to vote total. This doesn’t mean there won’t be fireworks before the convention. Everywhere I see down the news channel dial tells me that Hillary will start aggressively attacking Barack’s inexperience and his connection with shady real estate deals in Chicago and Barack will fire back questioning Hillary’s past business dealings. So much for a civilized campaign. When so much is at stake, this will go back to good old fashioned, down and dirty politics.

With so much attention paid to the Democratic race with McCain having sewn up the Republican nomination, does this hurt or help McCain. I think it will help him a lot for many reasons:

1) He can rest up (not saying he is old and needs it), having been on the road for a year now can wear down any politician, having made many speeches and appearances daily.

2) He have the time to properly go through the list of candidates for his Vice President running mate and create a strategy for the general election, no matter who he will be facing. The Democratic candidate won’t have this luxury.

3)You know that the Democratic primary will start to get down and dirty, turning off some who were looking at Hillary and Barack as different type of politicians who are above mudslinging

4)Hillary will have to start fighting for delegates from Michigan and Florida to be seating which will at least alienate some democrats no matter what the outcome will be

5)John McCain can fundraising and having to spend very little giving him a huge war chest for the general election while either Clinton or Obama will be behind the eight ball in funds by having spent more than planned (who would of thought this race will be this close).

6)Knowing the liberal media, having articles on John McCain toward the back of the newspaper is a good thing, no news is good news, their resources will be tied up covering the Democrats and finding dirt on them instead of finding dirt (or in the case of the New York Times making some up).

Another interesting point is that this race will be decided by Super delegates not committed delegates voted by citizens of this country. This is from a Democratic party who were in denial as George Bush defeated Al Gore in 2000. They were complaining up and down to anyone who would listen that that George Bush’s victory wasn’t legitimate. They complained that a republican loaded supreme court elected our president even though Al Gore won the popular vote. Hillary Clinton could lose the nomination by losing the Super Delegate race even by winning more votes as a whole this primary season (as of right now she is leading if you count MI and FL). As for me I will be sitting on the couch with me feet up and enjoying this. Let the fireworks begin.

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