Posted by
Marc T. on Tuesday, February 19, 2008 11:36:08 PM
*Well it looks like Barack Obama with every day is going to be the nominee of the Democratic party, but I have been saying on this site and others for the last year that I am guaranteeing a Republican victory in November and I have given many reasons, seven so far defending my case. Well here is two more
1: I think that either Michael Bloomberg or Ralph Nader or maybe both will put their name on the ballot surely taking away votes from the democratic party. Nader killed Gore in 2000 just like Ross Perot did with Bush the 41st. in 1992
2: The more I read about the great advantage Hillary has in the Latino community over Obama in the south and especially California. Since Obama has the momentum, I want to see if Hillary still have this advantage in Texas in two weeks. If there is still a large gap, I can see Latinos backing Republicans because of the family values angle or just stay home. It seems like we have infighting between minorities, its a very interesting dynamic to see play out.
Well in the name of fairness I do have three senarios that has Obama winomg in November over McCain.
1:I have underestimated the frustration with the conservative base over the McCain nomination where they will either back Obama in protest, vote for a third party candidate or just stay home. If you look at aggreate vote totals between Democrats and Republicans, Democrats are coming out to the polls in droves because of the energizing effects of the candidates while the Republicans didn't have one that inspired them.
2: Obama rides this wave all the way to the white house. I have never seen in the primary season, the crowds this man has attracted, filling stadiums all around the country with energetic crowds chanting his name. Its Obama the rock star. If people just hear the tag lines about change and the empty words and not dive deeper inside his speaches we will be safe. As long as they don't hear his far left leanings. He could bring out a record number of youth and other citiziens who normally doesn't vote. Perot had this effect on people until be went nuts and dropped out of the race on top but way before that, people started to realize that while he talked well about the problems,he had no solutions. People caught on to his game.
3:McCain has always talked about his straight talk campaign style, telling us things without sugar coating them. McCain could say something Obama and the news media could run with, he does speak from the hip too much. He needs to keep to the script without sounding too scripted. Also, he needs to keep his famous temper in check,especially when he gets attacked from the other side. He did a decent job when attacked from Mitt Romney but Romney didn't attack him the way the Democrats will on the way to November
Never say I am not fair!